Brexit: Britain’s Exit from the EU

Brexit, Britain’s Exit from the EU in essence is a decision for the UK to loosen ties with an EU steadfast on its way to becoming further and further centralised. This allows the potential for the UK to greatly strengthen ties and reconnect with the rest of the world.

Brexit is misrepresented in the mainstream media as an anti-immigration movement. Moreover the EU, a political project which seeks to achieve ever closer union (more centralisation), is represented simply as a market by the same mainstream media. Politically the European Union doesn’t sit well with the British public. EU mandated immigration policy doesn’t sit well with the British public and one of the reasons is because it fails to allow the British to fully implement arrangements with non-EU countries that it has substantial ties to.

Instead of looking at net immigration to the UK let us instead look at a metric more representative of British people and their sentiment towards other countries, the metric of British emigration. If we look at British emigration by continent, there are equivalent numbers of British expats in Asia Pacific as in Europe and just slightly less in North America. From this figure there is no means to favour Europe over Asia-Pacific or North America.

britishemigration1

Now lets group by the most popular countries. Grouping the EU26 countries in dark blue and the Republic of Ireland in Sky Blue due to its separate Common Travel Area with the UK. We can see that about 1/4 of all British expats go to the EU26 and that the overwhelming majority of British Emigrate is outside the EU. The EU26 is a block of about 500 million and this block hosts only about 1.4 million British expats. The next political block, the USA is a block of about 350 million hosts about 0.7 million British expats. There is not a substantial difference between these two blocks 0.28 % versus 0.2 % Brits per host population.

britishemigration2

However, we wish to highlight that there are three countries in particular, all outside the EU, which the British feel the highest degree of cultural and political affinity with and this is observed when we look at British Emigration. These are of course Canada, Australia and New Zealand and with the United Kingdom collectively make the beautiful acronym CANZUK. The block of Canada, Australia and New Zealand host about 2.1 million British expats which is remarkable considering they have a combined population of about 70 million. This means there are 3 % of Brits per host population in CANZ opposed to 0.28 % with the EU. In other words, normalising for the total population, the British favour the CANZ countries 10 fold over their EU neighbours and this is without a formal free immigration agreement, in place. These are the three countries which are both culturally and politically the most similar to the United Kingdom.

If the Republic of Ireland, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the USA are combined as the other English-Speaking countries or “Anglosphere” than more than half of all British Emigration is to the “Anglosphere” (note a substantial fraction of countries in “Other” will also be English Speaking countries in the Commonwealth).

The biggest issue with the European Union for Britain has been its block like mentality. Because the European Union tends to treat all countries as a block and Australia for instance has far better relations with Britain than it does any other European Country this has harmed Britain’s and Australia’s relationship (e.g. when the Free Trade both Britain and Australia desire is blocked by an Australian dispute due to subsidised Italian canned tomatoes by the Common Agricultural Policy – a policy which Britain already doesn’t like). Brexit allows Britain to reconnect with these countries and work together with these countries in a way that it is not possible when it is shackled to a European Union. Incidentally the biggest issue with Brexit is maintaining United Kingdom close relationship with the Republic of Ireland as it remains subject to the EU’s block like mentality and special concessions are not made for the Republic of Ireland which is dependent on the UK for trade and also as a land-bridge to get to continental Europe.

Brexit: Aligning CANZUK Policies

The most two popular ideas regarding Brexit (Britain’s Exit from the EU) are policies based on two of the other CANZUK countries.

  • The Australian Points Based Immigration System
    • This brings the Border Policies of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom in natural alignment
    • Allows for the accession of the UK and Canada into the Trans-Tasman Travel Agreement Existing between Australia and New Zealand i.e. CANZUK 
  • The Canadian Style Trade Deal with the EU
    • This brings the UK and Canada in high alignment when it comes to trade policy
    • This sets the way forward for a CANZUK trade arrangement

With naturally aligning polices of the four CANZUK countries, a CANZUK treaty is more likely.

Save the Date 23rd of May 2019: The European Elections the UK was Never Supposed to Have

The Brexit Party and an adversary Remain Party (Independent/Change UK/Renew/…/) are launched in backlash to the mainstream political parties… Due to the general incompetence of the CUK party, its polling remains largely insignificant and the Lib Dems are seen to have a stronger Remain voice.

The Brexit Party look to be the dominant party followed by Labour who have an ambiguous Brexit stance followed by the Lib Dems. Updates with voting intention are seen on Britain Elects.

29th of March 2019: The UK Government Fail to Brexit

The UK government fail to Brexit “on time”. A delayed date of the 31st of October 2019 is agreed with the EU.

27th of March 2019: MPs Vote on the 8 Brexit Alternative Plans

MPs vote on 8 alternative Brexit Plans. All 8 plans are rejected, here are the plans listed from Least Rejected to Most Rejected. Continued discussions are going to take place on the 29th of March 2019 (the date British MPs had promised being the date the UK leaves the EU) and 01st of April 2019. Brexit at a minimum looks to be delayed until the 12th of April 2019.

No photo description available.

14th of February 2019: Mutual Recognition Agreements Will Continue Between the UK and Australia, New Zealand and the USA

USA and UK Agree to Continue Mutual Recognition Agreement

Australia Agree to Continuity of Mutual Recognition Agreement

UK and New Zealand to continue Mutual Recognition Agreement

06th of February 2019: UK Government Respond to Petition

The UK government respond to Petition 224908: Brexit re article 50 it must not be suspended/stopped under any circumstances.

UKParliamentPetitions.png

We have to look to the time when this process is finished. Yes, the result was 52% versus 48%. We have to work out how to heal the divide—in Parliament, but most importantly, out there in the country—and ensure that we can secure a Brexit that works for everyone. With regard to securing that Brexit, the petitioners and the 116,000 people who signed the petition can rest assured: the Government and a lot of Government Members certainly do not want to revoke article 50, but we do not want to extend article 50, either.​

My hon. Friend the Member for St Albans (Mrs Main) agreed with my view that no one is going to die in a ditch about a couple of weeks, if there is a technical position to consider—a few of us have talked about that —but people saw what happened in the voting Lobbies a few weeks ago. My right hon. Friend the Member for Broxtowe (Anna Soubry) and my hon. Friend the Member for North East Somerset (Mr Rees-Mogg) were in the same voting Lobby, celebrating the same result. If we do not end up with a deal, one of those people—they are colleagues—is going to be sadly disappointed. They cannot both be right, given the positions that they took at that time. The obvious way to get through this in time to be able to leave on exit day, 29 March, is to ensure that we secure a deal.

I hope, as I said at the beginning, that we put forward a reasonable proposal to Brussels, in a reasonable way that allows people there the space that our colleagues in this place have had over the last week or so, ahead of that vote. That is what I urge. What changed over the previous weekend was that there was more emollient language from people on all sides of the debate, which allowed people to calm the temperature down a little. The hope is that we can do the same with Brussels. If people there are looking at alternatives in order to avoid a hard border and no deal, surely they can just look at this again and give us what we need on the Irish backstop to ensure that we can get a deal through. That would help us, clearly, but it would also help the EU—and without encouraging other people to leave. All we want is to be able to do our thing and to allow the EU to progress in the way it wants to. Let us be friendly neighbours—let us not be awkward tenants—and let us do that in the most clear way we can, so that we can all progress and move on.

Question put and agreed to.

Resolved,

That this House has considered e-petition 224908 relating to leaving the European Union.

Paul Scully

29th of January 2019: 7 Amendments to Withdrawal Agreement

The Brady amendment allows Theresa May to renegotiate her EU Withdrawal agreement with an alternative arrangements for the controversial backstop to avoid a Hard Border in Northern Ireland. The EU have already refused to re-negotiate this backstop making No Deal or rather trade negotiations carried out on World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules more likely with No Deal additional arrangements agreed.

The non-binding Spelman amendment rejects leaving the EU without a Deal however all other amendments seeking a Second Referendum, extension of Article 50 or an alternative customs arrangement with the EU are rejected. Hansard Parliament Debates 29-01-2019 The government responds to petition 224908: Article 50 must not be stopped under any circumstance. The fact that the Spelman amendment is non-binding and passed with only a mere majority of 8 MP votes mean only 5 MPs need to swayed into supporting Leaving the EU without a Deal/conducting Trade on WTO. It is therefore recommended that the British general public continue to pile pressure on by keeping writing to their MPs and signing all the Brexit related petitions that they support on the uk.parliament.petitions website.

2 months until Brexit Day.

Amendment A: Labour Amendment (Failed)

Allows MPs to vote on a Customs Arrangement with the EU or a Second Referendum.

labour amendment

Amendment O: Blackford Amendment (Failed)

Extends Article 50 and rules out a No Deal Brexit emphasising that the Scottish and Welsh Assemblies voted overwhelming to reject Theresa May’s Deal.

blackford amendment

Amendment G: Grieve Amendment (Failed)

The Grieve’s amendment proposes that the following dates are set out for debate on Brexit proposals put forward by MPs:

12th February 2019
26th February 2019
5th March 2019
12th March 2019
19th March 2019
26th March 2019

grieve amendment

Amendment B: Cooper Amendment (Failed)

Article 50 would have to be postponed until the 31st of December 2019 if MPs do not approve a Deal by the 26th of February 2019.

cooper amendment

Amendment J: Reeves Amendment (Failed)

Seeks an extension of Article 50 if there is no Brexit Deal approved by the house of commons.

reeves amendment

Amendment I: Spelman Amendment (Passed)

Non-binding amendment that rejects the UK quitting the EU without a withdrawal agreement.

spelman amendment

Amendment N: Brady Amendment (Passed)

It allows Theresa May to negotiate with the European Union to seek “alternative arrangements” for the controversial backstop to avoid a Hard Border in Northern Ireland.

brady amendment

28th January 2019: Immigration and Social Co-ordination (EU WithDrawal)

EU WithDrawal Bill.png

Hansard Parliament Debates 28-01-2019

15th January 2019: Theresa May’s Deal (Failed)

“Theresa May’s Deal” overwhelmingly rejected by House of Commons.

theresa mays deal

14th January 2019: Leaving the EU Government’s Response to Petitions

The government responds to petition 229963: Leave the EU without a deal in March 2019 alongside complementary petitions 221747, 235185 and counter petitions 232984, 231461 holding another EU referendum and 226509, 236261 not leaving the EU. It notes the most popular petition with approximately 3 times the signatures of the counter-petitions is petition 229963. This incidentally maps out in a similar pattern to the EU Referendum result corresponding to ~2 % of Leave Voters:

leavetheeunodeal2A.png

19th December 2018: UK Announces Australian Points Immigration System

UK Announces Australian Style Points Based Immigration System with Electronic Authorisation System and adds low risk visa overstayers to it’s e-gates:

Nationals from the USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Japan, Singapore and South Korea will be allowed to use e-gates to enter the UK from next summer onwards. In 2017, 10.2 million people arrived from these countries and crossed the UK border, constituting over half of all arrivals from outside the EEA.

The EU releases Contingency Action Plan for No Deal which aligns with the UK when it comes to Settled Status, visa-free right of travel for tourism, basic connectivity for trade.

UK’s Future Skills Based Immigration System

Brexit: European Commission implements “no-deal” Contingency Action Plan in specific sectors

29th March 2017: Article 50 Triggered

Article50-1.jpeg

The UK triggers article 50, giving a 2 year countdown to Brexit Day.

23rd of June 2016: EU Referendum The UK Votes to Leave the EU

It is worth quoting the numbers of the EU referendum out in full: 17,410,742 (52 %) opted to leave while 16,141,241 (48 %) opted to Remain and this gave Leave a 1,269,501 (4 %) edge over Remain.

All Voters

eu referendum results

Number of Constituencies

EU Referendum by Constituency.png

England

england eu referendum

Northern Ireland

northern ireland eu referendum

Scotland

scotland eu referendum

It is worthwhile comparing Scottish support for Remain in the UK vs Remain in the EU. As you can see substantially more Scots voted to Remain in the UK referendum than they did to Remain in the EU.

scottish independence vs eu referendum

Wales

Wales EU Referendum.png

Combined

eu referendum results2

18th September 2014: Scottish Independence Referendum

scottish independence referendum